Inflation will average 16.0% in 2024, Fitch Solutions has projected.
However, it is forecasting inflation to average 37.6% in 2023, higher than the 31.5% recorded in 2022.
“As such, we believe that policymakers will remain focused on controlling price growth in the near term as they aim for a more substantial disinflation trajectory before concluding the tightening cycle” it stated in its latest assessment of Ghana.
It said under an expected International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, the Bank of Ghana will likely be encouraged to keep the policy rate elevated to “strengthen its monetary policy framework”.
“We forecast inflation will average 16.0% in 2024 – we believe that it is unlikely that the BoG will start easing monetary policy. Indeed, under an expected IMF programme, the BoG will likely be encouraged to keep the policy rate elevated to “strengthen its monetary policy framework”.
“Furthermore, the return of positive real interest rates will result in more capital inflows, mitigating risks to Ghana’s external position”, it pointed out.
Additionally, it said Inflation will ease through 2023 but remain well above the Bank of Ghana’s target range of 6.0-10.0%.
February 2023 inflation slows to 52.8% to sustain downward trend
Year-on-year Inflation for the month of February 2023 slowed down to 52.8%, the Ghana Statistical Service disclosed.
This was a reduction from the January 2023 estimate of 53.6%, influenced by the fall in inflation of transportation and other non-food items.
It was also the second consecutive time that the rate dropped in 20 months. In January 2023, inflation fell marginally to 53.6%, from 54.1% recorded in December 2022.